Katharine: how safe are we in today's world?

 
At the instigation of Jane, we were honored by the visit of the distinguished National Security expert Dr Brad Roberts,  who recently completed a Fellowship at Stanford University in Palo Alto, CA.  Dr Roberts spoke at the Nelson Mandela Center (formerly MRI),  to a group of Anglophones (representing various Montpellier-based groups, including AWG, FOAL, BCA, and others) about the five key threats that may undermine world stability in the twenty-first century.

He told us that the goal of ISIS is to restore a Caliphate;  they have defined strategy for their sphere of influence in both 2035 and 2135, at which time their revolutionary thinkers intend to have the largest standing in the world,  along with nuclear weapons.   Next up is Mr Putin of Russia;  the West made a grave mistake in ignoring Russian interests within their sphere of influence (Kosovo) in the '90s and Mr Putin has neither forgotten nor forgiven, nor will he allow the West another chance at rapprochement.

Iran, Iraq and North Korea are small regional powers who have nuclear weapons -  termed by Dr Roberts "porcupine" states - i.e. small animals whose sharp spines protect them from predators.

China has developed a middle class of 650million people in 10 years.  They regard themselves as having exited a century of ignominy;  Brad told us that Tsing Tao beer was manufactured in China to supply the requirements of the German navy base.  Tsing Tao beer carries the sting of humiliation to the Chinese to this day.

What does "The West" now signify?  The term lost its meaning in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed,  peace broke out, and nations were inclined against militarism.  We adopted The Freedom Agenda. It didn't last. 

Dr Roberts made reference in his talk to a 2007 book entitled "Savage Century: Back to Barbarism," by Thérèse Delpech, (translated by George Holoch), in which the author poses the question:  What are the worldwide parallels between 1905 and 2005, and do these similarities suggest that we may be on the brink of another period of savage world wars.

The presentation was followed by a Q&A session from the floor.  Dr Roberts had been asked to end our discussion on a positive note.  Did we?